Crime Rate in Modesto, CA (2025)

Modesto has a Crime Index of 57 out of 100 (grade D — elevated risk) for 2025, based on FBI-reported violent and property crime rates relative to other US cities. That ranks it #139 of 175 cities in California by reported crime. Reported crime is not the same as actual crime. Research on the gap between crime that occurs and crime that gets reported to police — often called the "dark figure" of crime — estimates that roughly 40% of violent crime and about a third of property crime go unreported each year. Every index built on official statistics, including this one, necessarily undercounts real crime. That gap is exactly why homicide — the offense with the smallest dark figure — anchors the calculation instead of a more commonly reported but less reliable category like theft.

A "Elevated risk" grade means Modesto's severity-weighted crime rate falls in the 45–59 range on the Crime Index, out of a national distribution of every city we track for 2025. Grades are calibrated against the national distribution of every area we track for the same data year — they describe an area's relative standing, not an absolute promise. A "Very safe" grade means an area sits among the lowest-crime places in the country with usable data, not that nothing ever happens there.

The most frequently reported offense in Modesto for 2025 was larceny-theft, with 3,267 reported incidents. See the full breakdown by offense above for how violent and property crime compare to the US average.

There isn't enough multi-year data to state a reliable trend for Modesto.

Based on 2025 reported rates, Modesto residents face roughly a 1 in 171 annual chance of a violent crime and about 1 in 53 for a property crime, calculated city-wide. Your individual risk varies widely by neighborhood, time of day, and circumstances.

Modesto is safer than 23% of the 759 US cities we track for 2025, ranked by Crime Index. Its violent-crime rate is +34% vs the California average and its property-crime rate is in line with the California average.

No. National research on the dark figure of crime estimates that roughly 40% of violent crime and about a third of property crime are never reported to police, so any index built on official statistics — including this one — measures a floor on real crime, not a ceiling. That's part of why the index leans most heavily on homicide, the category with the smallest reporting gap.